Saturday, April 17, 2010

Out The Black looks primed for Scottish National glory

Philip Hobbs has his team in fine fettle and his 12-year-old, quoted at 33-1, looks a good bet to win Ayr marathon.
Philip Hobbs has his team firing on all cylinders and the Somerset trainer can win the Coral Scottish Grand National (3.20) at Ayr today with Out The Black.
Hobbs is going to miss out on training 100 winners in a season for the first time in a decade but he has enjoyed 29 successes since the start of March and Out The Black, quoted at 33-1 by Paddy Power, is equipped to keep him riding high.
At first glance, the tip warrants being an outsider — his 29 rivals are all younger and he has not run since November — but he has got few miles on the clock for a 12-year-old and can go well when fresh. Moreover, he has his optimum conditions and is able to race off the same mark as when a fine third to Hello Bud in this race last year. His latest effort, when a close fifth to Any Currency over an inadequate three miles at Ascot, suggests that he has not declined in the interim.
Hobbs has a useful “second string” in Chiaro, but bigger threats may be Mobaasher, not seen to best advantage behind Poker De Sivola at Cheltenham last month, and Dom D’Orgeval, who has been in fine form this spring.
Best bet on the card is Gloucester, who can win the Samsung Electronics Scottish Champion Hurdle (2.45). Nothing was travelling better than him two out in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham a month ago but he faded to finish sixth — the combination of the stiff finish and not having run since September finding him out. This much speedier test should suit him better.
There is no shortage of quality at Newbury, with Canford Cliffs and Arcano, leading hopes for the 2,000 Guineas, crossing swords for a second time in the Bathwick Tyres Greenham Stakes (3.40).
Arcano came out on top when they met in the Prix Morny at Deauville last year but the suspicion is that Canford Cliffs, who had previously won the Coventry Stakes in scintillating style at Royal Ascot, was not at his best that day. With his stable in fabulous form, he can turn the tables.
It will be a surprise if the Dubai Duty Free Stakes (3.05) has a bearing on the 1,000 Guineas but Misheer, who thrashed Habaayib in the Cherry Hinton before finishing in front of Lady Of The Desert and Puff in the Cheveley Park, has obvious form claims.
Manifest, who might have found the ground too quick when disappointing at Newmarket in October, is worth noting in the Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (2.00), while Huzzah looks a live outsider for the Berry Bros & Rudd Magnum Spring Cup (2.35). He is 6lb lower than when runner-up in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot last year and his below-par return in the Lincoln is easily excused as he was slow away from a poor draw.

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