Will Mick Kinane and Sea the Stars win the Derby?

In the aftermath of Sea The Stars’ brilliant victory in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket earlier this month, no one could wipe the smile off the face of Mick Kinane, the winning jockey. Kinane has seen it all in a career that began 35 years ago at Leopardstown and, with his 50th birthday looming, he knows that retirement cannot be postponed for too much longer. But when a horse nurtured on the gallops turns out to be as good as you expected on the racetrack, the thrill cuts away the years. “If you felt nothing, it would be time to go,” says the Irishman.
Kinane and Sea The Stars will team up on Saturday for a tilt at the history books. The last horse to win the 2000 Guineas and the Derby was Nashwan, 20 years ago; the one before that was Nijinsky, who won the Triple Crown in 1970. If Kinane’s robust confidence is justified around Epsom’s unique contours, the son of Cape Cross will pass into the ranks of the turf’s true aristocracy. “These horses are a rarity,” says Kinane, his tone almost hushed in wonder. “I’ve been waiting for one to come along for a couple of years now and you have to enjoy it when they do.”
Kinane has known more rarities than most, including his two Derby winners, Commander-in-Chief for Henry Cecil and Galileo for Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore, his former employers. O’Brien and Kinane split at the end of a fraught 2003 season, which led many to predict a slow descent into the twilight for Kinane. Instead, John Oxx, another quiet genius of the Irish turf, snapped up the services of a jockey he knew well, prompting a welcome and unexpected Indian summer for the 13 times Irish champion.
After the hothouse atmosphere of Ballydoyle, life at Oxx’s must seem like a cool shower. But the pair have had to bide their time, watching as O’Brien swept all before him. Now, it is their turn and, despite the potential presence of nine Coolmore runners in the Derby field, neither Oxx nor Kinane would swap one of them for their own champion.
“We knew from day one he (Sea The Stars) was a lovely horse,” says Kinane. “He has the class and the pace and he’s got a great temperament. You don’t have to worry about the occasion getting to this fella. He’ll be counting the crowd.”
As a previous victim of Coolmore’s annual embarrassment of riches, Kinane will be watching with interest which horse his old rival, Johnny Murtagh, will pick. The choice mirrors that made by Kinane seven years ago. For Hawk Wing read Rip van Winkle and for Fame and Glory read High Chaparral, the former oozing speed and class, but not certain to stay, the latter solid and strong, sure to be in the frame. Kinane chose Hawk Wing and knew, as soon as he felt the rain on Oaks day, that he had made a mistake. Murtagh duly rode High Chaparral to victory, two lengths ahead of Hawk Wing.
“It’s a very fine line and Johnny won’t get much help from the gallops because Aidan won’t work any of them together,” says Kinane. “You might find out how well some of them have come out of their races, but it’s not easy. I’d say Johnny was definitely taken by the way Rip van Winkle ran in the Guineas. He can’t get that out of his head, but Fame and Glory has been impressive and likes the trip. It’s hard to see him being out of the first three.”
Murtagh’s nerve-ends will be taut enough without any further twists from Kinane, but all is fair in the psychological preliminaries to the big day. There have been signs, notably at Chester and, more recently, on Air Chief Marshal at the Curragh last weekend, of an erratic streak in Murtagh’s riding that was not visible last year. He has made the wrong choice twice already this season and will not relish getting it wrong for a third time when it really matters. “There’s always disappointment when you choose the wrong one,” says Kinane, suppressing a chuckle.
Kinane has experienced every emotion in his 20 rides around the one and a half miles of the world’s most quixotic racetrack. On King’s Theatre, he had the race won until Erhaab came out of nowhere to snatch the prize; on Commander-in-Chief, he turned a second-string ride into unexpected victory and on Galileo he had the rare joy of knowing he would win a long way from home.
“That was the armchair ride of them all,” he says. “It was a smallish field and I was in control every step, which meant I was able to enjoy it. That doesn’t happen very often in any race, let alone the Derby. You’ve got to have a horse with pace, otherwise you’ll be in trouble. But there’s also a brick wall halfway down the straight and a lot of horses can hit the wall after going so quick.”
The question most asked of both Oxx and Kinane over the past month is whether Sea The Stars will be one of them. Kinane has always been more bullish about the colt’s stamina than the more naturally cautious trainer. “It felt like the mile of the Guineas would be the minimum trip for him,” he says.
Perceptions, though, have changed in recent weeks and a horse that was once shorter odds for the Derby, the first under the sponsorship of Investec, than the Guineas is now speared with the suspicion of being best at a mile or 10 furlongs. In part, the fault lies with Sea The Stars, who won the Guineas too comfortably to be a Derby horse, and with history, which dictates that another colt will improve more or be stronger on Derby day. Jim Bolger’s Gan Amhras (third) and Rip van Winkle (fourth) chased Sea The Stars home in the Guineas and would not need much to reverse the places.
“As soon as a horse like Sea The Stars walks through the gates, your hopes are high,” says Oxx. “He’s a big strong horse, he eats, he sleeps, he’s a tremendous athlete, but you don’t know if he’ll stay until the day.”
If it comes down to the coolness and confidence of the men in the saddle, Oxx, who has had a win (Sin-ndar) and a third (Alamshar) from his two previous runners, need have no concerns. Kinane might be 50 in three weeks, but retirement is not in the wind, not when there are good horses to be ridden and big races to be won. “I’ve still got that competitive edge and, thankfully, I’m in good shape physically,” says Kinane. “When the time comes, I’ll be the first to know.”
Sea The Stars could not be in better hands on Saturday.
Source:The times